Monday, April 25, 2016

Nifty is Sitting on a Launchpad : Highs May Soon Be Tested

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for May to July 2016

I had written my views on Nifty in my last post Nifty 31 March 2016: The Rise May End on 02 Apr 2016 and had perceived that Nifty would make a high on 02-04 Apr, a low on 08 Apr and would then make a high on 22 Apr.  The perceptions were more or less proved to be right with minor aberrations.

Now that 22 Apr is past, a review is necessary.  In my last post, I had also stated that a low may come in mid May and could see 6660 levels, however, this may not happen now at all.  To my surprise, the move in April, breached the falling channel of 9119-6824 and that is a major event.  While a low may come in mid May, but it is unlikely to go that deep and may bounce back from the LTL of the rising channel from 6824.  Till this channel is breached downwards and sustained, trading for an all time high should be the motive of any trader.

As I perceive,  at the time of writing this post ie at 7840 to about 7810 is the level to go long in Nifty.  SL could be below the LTL of the rising channel.   I feel that Nifty is ready for a 1000 points or more on the higher side.  The first halt may happen in the second half of May and the final high could be made in July.  I would not be surprised, if 8100 is touched in Apr expiry, but that would be a very close call that I would avoid.

Taking positions through 8000CE of May expiry should fetch substantial returns.  Caution is advised near 8000, where a covering PE through 7800 strike could be taken.  All the best.


Friday, April 01, 2016

Nifty 31 March 2016: The Rise May End on 02 Apr 2016

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 31 March 2016

In my last post "Nifty 23 February 2016: A Dip Before Further Rise", I had mentioned that the high may come on 28 March.  However, the high may continue till 01/04 Apr and may touch 7785-7800 zone.  Above this level, possibilities of further rise would strengthen.

My perceptions are that after 02 Apr, Nifty will head downwards for possibly a new low on 15-17 May 2016.   The intermediate targets during this journey will be 7660/7430/7210/6970 with final low ending near or below 6660 around 15-17 May 2016.

Plan.  On or after 04 Apr 2016,  preferably close to 7785-7800, take covering position through 2 lots of 7400 PE of Apr expiry.  Expect Nifty to touch 7420-7430 on 08-09 Apr 2016.  If it does,  reduce 7400 PE to 1 lot and take 2 lots of 7800 CE of May expiry.  Expect retest of high to touch 7660/7720 on 23 Apr 2016.  If it does, take 2 lots of 7400 PE of May expiry and hold till 15-17 May or till 6660 is reached, whichever is earlier.   Confirmation of downward move will come below 7650.

All the best.

PS.  I may not be able to regularly update these posts and hence an appropriate SL based on individual risk appetite may be placed by the readers.  Alternately, positions may be hedged if and when things do not look as perceived.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Nifty 23 February 2016: A Dip Before Further Rise

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 23 February 2016

Further to my post 11 Feb 2016 : Low may be Around the Corner.

With the low dipping to 6869 on 12 Feb 16, the high zone has got shifted.  Now the high may come on 27-28 March 2016 instead of 04-07 Mar 2016 provided the low remains intact till then.

Meanwhile, the intermediate high zone is likely to come on 25 Feb 2016 and may get stalled near 7280.  Subsequent fall should see a low on 02-04 March 2016 or a little later.

Recommended Plan

Close all longs on 25 Feb 2016, preferably between recent high and 7280 and initiate shorts or take cover positions through 6900 PE of Mar expiry.

On 03 March, most likely around 6920-6900, take CEs through 7000-7200 strikes for a high on 28 March 2016.

All the best.

Thursday, February 11, 2016

11 Feb 2016 : Low may be Around the Corner

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 11 February 2016

It has been a little long since I wrote my views on Nifty here.  My apologies for lack of updates through this roller coaster ride in Nifty.  I am still not really keen to update due to my inability to remain in synch with the markets, but there has been requests that push me into writing what I perceive as the possible course of Nifty in next couple of months.

First of all, absolute low could be limited to 6700, which I have been talking about for quite some time.  11-12 Feb 2016 (today and tomorrow) mark an intermediate low and 04/07 March 2016 could be a high.  The final low may be established in Apr/May 2016.  Readers may keep an eye for a breach of UTL of the falling channel from 9119, which would define the intent for a larger rise.  Till that happens, this UTL will continue to resist the bulls and subsequent falls will keep pushing the Nifty lower.

11-12 Feb 2016   Low zone, expect 7120. 6700-6800 indicated if 7110 is breached.
04-07 Mar 2016 or may be a little later  - 7650/7820/7960, Keep a lookout for breach of UTL.


All the best.

Friday, January 01, 2016

Happy New Year

Welcome 2016


Wishing all the members a very happy and prosperous 2016.  May God bless you all and your near and dear ones.  May all your endeavors reach the desired success.

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR