Is the Low Established in Nifty on 13 November 2015.

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 13 November and Later

I had written about my perceptions on Nifty at Nifty on 05 Nov 2015 and Later : Possible Impact of / on Bihar Election where I had mentioned that 13 November would be a day of low.  So far, it has turned out in that manner, but question remains whether the fall is over and done with.  As far as I am concerned, I may have flawed due to some holidays this month, which may have been missed.  Currently, the low zone of Friday the 13th, looks good to me, but there is possibility of another low on 19 November.

This is what I perceive for the time being.  Nifty needs to hold 7720-7710 band.  If it does so, it should rise to first test 7850/7950/8130 on 17-18 November and then make the low on 19 November, which may not go lower than the recent low it makes.  I expect a dip to 7739 at the most.  After 19th, Nifty may again rise to make a high on 24/26 th.  I perceive that 8130 should be tested during this expiry and it would be a crucial level to identify further course Nifty takes.

As long as the UTL of 9119-8655 is held, broader trend remains down.  This TL will be hovering around 8250 on 24/26 November.

The trade setup for now is simple.  SL 7710 or 7530 as per risk appetite.  Go long as close to 7720 as possible (or above 7780) for targets of 7850/7950/8130/8250.  If and when it reaches above 8130,  prepare and go for shorts as close to 8250 or below 8130 for a new recent low with SL of 8260 or 8340 depending on the risk appetite.

Summary

18 Nov 2015 - A high around 1200-1215 when 7850 is highly probable.

19 Nov 2015 - A low zone.  Time yet to be defined.  A retest of the low would be possible on this day.

24/26 Nov 2015 - A high at closing hours.  7850/7950 are very likely. May test 8130/8250.   The corrective to the entire fall from 8337 should finish at this time.

02-04 Dec 2015 - Not accurately defined, but possibly on these days the next leg of the fall may finish.  If it indeed does, we may see levels lower than 7530 and may be lower.

Readers may again keep in mind that major moves may not come in this expiry.  The extremes are indicated in Mid December.

All the best.

Happy Diwali 2015

Wishing all the members a very happy and prosperous Diwali.  May Godess Lakshmi shower her blessing to all of you.  God bless.

 

 

Nifty on 05 Nov 2015 and Later : Possible Impact of / on Bihar Election

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 

The current week as well as next week are full of events that may move the markets substantially. There are plenty of news from USA coming and then we have Bihar exit polls and the result on Sunday.  On various occasions I have maintained that TA at times also indicates the outcome of a pending news. Let us see what is expected in next 4-6 days.

Tomorrow between 0945-1000 hrs a high should be established.  I am expecting a visit to 8130-8140. Above this band, bears are likely to get massacred and hence SLs should be tight for shorts and shorts are indeed advised. 

Once this high is done (presumably at 8137) Nifty is likely to head towards 8040 and reach there towards closing 30 minutes tomorrow (05 November 2015).  With shorts initiated at or near 8137, aim to get into CEs, if 8040-50 is seen around 1500-1530 hrs and hold. 

I am expecting a lot of volatility for next 4-7 trading days, which works out to 10-13 Nov 2015.  After the possible low at 1500-1530 hrs tomorrow, Nifty remains above 8040, it may head higher to peak on 10/12/13 th Nov.  Possible targets in that case would be 8270-80 above which we should start looking for a new high for Nifty.

Summary

05 Nov 2015 - A high around 1000-1015 and a low between 1500-1530 (May come at the opening of next day)

06 Nov 2015 - A high at 1145-1200 hrs.  Low yet to be defined.

09 Nov 2015 - A high at closing hours.  May test 8160/8270.   The corrective to the fall from 8337 should finish at this time.

13 Nov 2015 - Not accurately defined yet, but possibly on this day the C to the fall may finish.  If it indeed does, we may see 7850-7800 and may be lower.

Readers may keep in mind that major moves may not come in this expiry.  The extremes are indicated in Mid December.  Whichever side it moves, the current extremes are likely to get stretched by then.  We may see Nifty above 9200 or below 7500 in this period.  Keep the intended positions covered with cheaper options.  Also be miserly with initiating the position as well as with your SLs.  e.g  A short initiated near 8130-40 band, must have a SL at 8145/8150 coz above these levels, Nifty may head for 8270.  If it does not, and gets below 8130 again, re-initiate shorts with SL a tick higher than the high made.

All the best.