Monday, April 25, 2016

Nifty is Sitting on a Launchpad : Highs May Soon Be Tested

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for May to July 2016

I had written my views on Nifty in my last post Nifty 31 March 2016: The Rise May End on 02 Apr 2016 and had perceived that Nifty would make a high on 02-04 Apr, a low on 08 Apr and would then make a high on 22 Apr.  The perceptions were more or less proved to be right with minor aberrations.

Now that 22 Apr is past, a review is necessary.  In my last post, I had also stated that a low may come in mid May and could see 6660 levels, however, this may not happen now at all.  To my surprise, the move in April, breached the falling channel of 9119-6824 and that is a major event.  While a low may come in mid May, but it is unlikely to go that deep and may bounce back from the LTL of the rising channel from 6824.  Till this channel is breached downwards and sustained, trading for an all time high should be the motive of any trader.

As I perceive,  at the time of writing this post ie at 7840 to about 7810 is the level to go long in Nifty.  SL could be below the LTL of the rising channel.   I feel that Nifty is ready for a 1000 points or more on the higher side.  The first halt may happen in the second half of May and the final high could be made in July.  I would not be surprised, if 8100 is touched in Apr expiry, but that would be a very close call that I would avoid.

Taking positions through 8000CE of May expiry should fetch substantial returns.  Caution is advised near 8000, where a covering PE through 7800 strike could be taken.  All the best.


Friday, April 01, 2016

Nifty 31 March 2016: The Rise May End on 02 Apr 2016

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 31 March 2016

In my last post "Nifty 23 February 2016: A Dip Before Further Rise", I had mentioned that the high may come on 28 March.  However, the high may continue till 01/04 Apr and may touch 7785-7800 zone.  Above this level, possibilities of further rise would strengthen.

My perceptions are that after 02 Apr, Nifty will head downwards for possibly a new low on 15-17 May 2016.   The intermediate targets during this journey will be 7660/7430/7210/6970 with final low ending near or below 6660 around 15-17 May 2016.

Plan.  On or after 04 Apr 2016,  preferably close to 7785-7800, take covering position through 2 lots of 7400 PE of Apr expiry.  Expect Nifty to touch 7420-7430 on 08-09 Apr 2016.  If it does,  reduce 7400 PE to 1 lot and take 2 lots of 7800 CE of May expiry.  Expect retest of high to touch 7660/7720 on 23 Apr 2016.  If it does, take 2 lots of 7400 PE of May expiry and hold till 15-17 May or till 6660 is reached, whichever is earlier.   Confirmation of downward move will come below 7650.

All the best.

PS.  I may not be able to regularly update these posts and hence an appropriate SL based on individual risk appetite may be placed by the readers.  Alternately, positions may be hedged if and when things do not look as perceived.