Time Tuned Nifty : October 2017

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for October 2017

It has been a long time and I may still have to catch up with the developments and moves to be able to get in synch with Nifty.  However, I am trying to make a brief on what could happen in October 2017 and I am going to be really brief.  The dates I write will have a tolerance of a day on either side.  In addition, they would change, if there is a change in the current extremes that Nifty has made so far.

03 Oct 2017 - Low zone.  Possible to see 9720.

09 Oct 2017 - High zone.  Possible to see 9825/9974/10050/10110

17 Oct 2017 - Low zone.  Possible to see 10020/9780/9735/9570

31 Oct 2017 - Low zone.  Possible to see  10030/9730/9490

In extreme case, we may witness 9000 or a little lower either on 17 or 31 October.  A possibility for a dip to 8500 or lower in Sep-Oct next year exists, as long as the high remains intact.

The Possible News.  Markets nervous due forthcoming elections.  OR.   Poor reports by the Companies that form Nifty.  OR A rate hike by RBI????

All the best.

Time Tuned Nifty : The rise in Nifty may soon end.

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for Mar 2017 to Jun 2017

It has been almost a year since I wrote my last post Nifty is Sitting on a Launchpad : Highs May Soon Be Tested.There have been multiple reasons for my inability to write and I may still be trying to narrate a half-baked story.

In my last post I perceived that Nifty would make the final high in Jul 16.  While it did make a high at that point of time, almost 900+ points above the levels of Nifty, when the post was written;  but the subsequent cool off was minuscule and Nifty continued to stretch the high to test the all time it had made.  Presently, it is pretty close to redefining a new high.

At this crucial juncture, I felt it was pertinent to have a look at the possibilities that emerge.  What I perceive for now is that the rise in larger time frame is far from over.  However, in the intermediate term, Nifty is close to finishing a high, which may happen on any date among 10/03, 21/03 and 29/03.  On one of these days, I expect Nifty to test 9130 to finish the current move.   Once this event is over and only once Nifty gets below 9020 thereafter, short positions should be or can be initiated with SL above the high it makes.  

The moves subsequent to 29/03 will possibly hint at the subsequent moves of Nifty, which could be a grinding lateral move in a tight range  or a fairly sharp dip to 7700 roughly.

PS.  I may be unable to provide frequent updates and these moves could well extend for 09 months to an year.  Hedging is advised at own discretion.  All the best.

Nifty is Sitting on a Launchpad : Highs May Soon Be Tested

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for May to July 2016

I had written my views on Nifty in my last post Nifty 31 March 2016: The Rise May End on 02 Apr 2016 and had perceived that Nifty would make a high on 02-04 Apr, a low on 08 Apr and would then make a high on 22 Apr.  The perceptions were more or less proved to be right with minor aberrations.

Now that 22 Apr is past, a review is necessary.  In my last post, I had also stated that a low may come in mid May and could see 6660 levels, however, this may not happen now at all.  To my surprise, the move in April, breached the falling channel of 9119-6824 and that is a major event.  While a low may come in mid May, but it is unlikely to go that deep and may bounce back from the LTL of the rising channel from 6824.  Till this channel is breached downwards and sustained, trading for an all time high should be the motive of any trader.

As I perceive,  at the time of writing this post ie at 7840 to about 7810 is the level to go long in Nifty.  SL could be below the LTL of the rising channel.   I feel that Nifty is ready for a 1000 points or more on the higher side.  The first halt may happen in the second half of May and the final high could be made in July.  I would not be surprised, if 8100 is touched in Apr expiry, but that would be a very close call that I would avoid.

Taking positions through 8000CE of May expiry should fetch substantial returns.  Caution is advised near 8000, where a covering PE through 7800 strike could be taken.  All the best.

Nifty 31 March 2016: The Rise May End on 02 Apr 2016

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 31 March 2016

In my last post "Nifty 23 February 2016: A Dip Before Further Rise", I had mentioned that the high may come on 28 March.  However, the high may continue till 01/04 Apr and may touch 7785-7800 zone.  Above this level, possibilities of further rise would strengthen.

My perceptions are that after 02 Apr, Nifty will head downwards for possibly a new low on 15-17 May 2016.   The intermediate targets during this journey will be 7660/7430/7210/6970 with final low ending near or below 6660 around 15-17 May 2016.

Plan.  On or after 04 Apr 2016,  preferably close to 7785-7800, take covering position through 2 lots of 7400 PE of Apr expiry.  Expect Nifty to touch 7420-7430 on 08-09 Apr 2016.  If it does,  reduce 7400 PE to 1 lot and take 2 lots of 7800 CE of May expiry.  Expect retest of high to touch 7660/7720 on 23 Apr 2016.  If it does, take 2 lots of 7400 PE of May expiry and hold till 15-17 May or till 6660 is reached, whichever is earlier.   Confirmation of downward move will come below 7650.

All the best.

PS.  I may not be able to regularly update these posts and hence an appropriate SL based on individual risk appetite may be placed by the readers.  Alternately, positions may be hedged if and when things do not look as perceived.

Nifty 23 February 2016: A Dip Before Further Rise

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 23 February 2016

Further to my post 11 Feb 2016 : Low may be Around the Corner.

With the low dipping to 6869 on 12 Feb 16, the high zone has got shifted.  Now the high may come on 27-28 March 2016 instead of 04-07 Mar 2016 provided the low remains intact till then.

Meanwhile, the intermediate high zone is likely to come on 25 Feb 2016 and may get stalled near 7280.  Subsequent fall should see a low on 02-04 March 2016 or a little later.

Recommended Plan

Close all longs on 25 Feb 2016, preferably between recent high and 7280 and initiate shorts or take cover positions through 6900 PE of Mar expiry.

On 03 March, most likely around 6920-6900, take CEs through 7000-7200 strikes for a high on 28 March 2016.

All the best.

11 Feb 2016 : Low may be Around the Corner

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 11 February 2016

It has been a little long since I wrote my views on Nifty here.  My apologies for lack of updates through this roller coaster ride in Nifty.  I am still not really keen to update due to my inability to remain in synch with the markets, but there has been requests that push me into writing what I perceive as the possible course of Nifty in next couple of months.

First of all, absolute low could be limited to 6700, which I have been talking about for quite some time.  11-12 Feb 2016 (today and tomorrow) mark an intermediate low and 04/07 March 2016 could be a high.  The final low may be established in Apr/May 2016.  Readers may keep an eye for a breach of UTL of the falling channel from 9119, which would define the intent for a larger rise.  Till that happens, this UTL will continue to resist the bulls and subsequent falls will keep pushing the Nifty lower.

11-12 Feb 2016   Low zone, expect 7120. 6700-6800 indicated if 7110 is breached.
04-07 Mar 2016 or may be a little later  - 7650/7820/7960, Keep a lookout for breach of UTL.


All the best.

Happy New Year

Welcome 2016

Wishing all the members a very happy and prosperous 2016.  May God bless you all and your near and dear ones.  May all your endeavors reach the desired success.

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Is the Low Established in Nifty on 13 November 2015.

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 13 November and Later

I had written about my perceptions on Nifty at Nifty on 05 Nov 2015 and Later : Possible Impact of / on Bihar Election where I had mentioned that 13 November would be a day of low.  So far, it has turned out in that manner, but question remains whether the fall is over and done with.  As far as I am concerned, I may have flawed due to some holidays this month, which may have been missed.  Currently, the low zone of Friday the 13th, looks good to me, but there is possibility of another low on 19 November.

This is what I perceive for the time being.  Nifty needs to hold 7720-7710 band.  If it does so, it should rise to first test 7850/7950/8130 on 17-18 November and then make the low on 19 November, which may not go lower than the recent low it makes.  I expect a dip to 7739 at the most.  After 19th, Nifty may again rise to make a high on 24/26 th.  I perceive that 8130 should be tested during this expiry and it would be a crucial level to identify further course Nifty takes.

As long as the UTL of 9119-8655 is held, broader trend remains down.  This TL will be hovering around 8250 on 24/26 November.

The trade setup for now is simple.  SL 7710 or 7530 as per risk appetite.  Go long as close to 7720 as possible (or above 7780) for targets of 7850/7950/8130/8250.  If and when it reaches above 8130,  prepare and go for shorts as close to 8250 or below 8130 for a new recent low with SL of 8260 or 8340 depending on the risk appetite.

Summary

18 Nov 2015 - A high around 1200-1215 when 7850 is highly probable.

19 Nov 2015 - A low zone.  Time yet to be defined.  A retest of the low would be possible on this day.

24/26 Nov 2015 - A high at closing hours.  7850/7950 are very likely. May test 8130/8250.   The corrective to the entire fall from 8337 should finish at this time.

02-04 Dec 2015 - Not accurately defined, but possibly on these days the next leg of the fall may finish.  If it indeed does, we may see levels lower than 7530 and may be lower.

Readers may again keep in mind that major moves may not come in this expiry.  The extremes are indicated in Mid December.

All the best.

Happy Diwali 2015

Wishing all the members a very happy and prosperous Diwali.  May Godess Lakshmi shower her blessing to all of you.  God bless.

 

 

Nifty on 05 Nov 2015 and Later : Possible Impact of / on Bihar Election

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 

The current week as well as next week are full of events that may move the markets substantially. There are plenty of news from USA coming and then we have Bihar exit polls and the result on Sunday.  On various occasions I have maintained that TA at times also indicates the outcome of a pending news. Let us see what is expected in next 4-6 days.

Tomorrow between 0945-1000 hrs a high should be established.  I am expecting a visit to 8130-8140. Above this band, bears are likely to get massacred and hence SLs should be tight for shorts and shorts are indeed advised. 

Once this high is done (presumably at 8137) Nifty is likely to head towards 8040 and reach there towards closing 30 minutes tomorrow (05 November 2015).  With shorts initiated at or near 8137, aim to get into CEs, if 8040-50 is seen around 1500-1530 hrs and hold. 

I am expecting a lot of volatility for next 4-7 trading days, which works out to 10-13 Nov 2015.  After the possible low at 1500-1530 hrs tomorrow, Nifty remains above 8040, it may head higher to peak on 10/12/13 th Nov.  Possible targets in that case would be 8270-80 above which we should start looking for a new high for Nifty.

Summary

05 Nov 2015 - A high around 1000-1015 and a low between 1500-1530 (May come at the opening of next day)

06 Nov 2015 - A high at 1145-1200 hrs.  Low yet to be defined.

09 Nov 2015 - A high at closing hours.  May test 8160/8270.   The corrective to the fall from 8337 should finish at this time.

13 Nov 2015 - Not accurately defined yet, but possibly on this day the C to the fall may finish.  If it indeed does, we may see 7850-7800 and may be lower.

Readers may keep in mind that major moves may not come in this expiry.  The extremes are indicated in Mid December.  Whichever side it moves, the current extremes are likely to get stretched by then.  We may see Nifty above 9200 or below 7500 in this period.  Keep the intended positions covered with cheaper options.  Also be miserly with initiating the position as well as with your SLs.  e.g  A short initiated near 8130-40 band, must have a SL at 8145/8150 coz above these levels, Nifty may head for 8270.  If it does not, and gets below 8130 again, re-initiate shorts with SL a tick higher than the high made.

All the best.

Nov 2015 and Ahead

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for Nov 2015

I had written my appreciation for Oct in my last post at October 2015 and Ahead . Nifty is on the verge of making 8360 and that may happen Either on 26-27 Oct or on 30 Oct-02 Nov.

Once this high is established,  look for shorts between 8360-8370 with SL of 8400+ for a target of 7950/7500/7250.  As long as 8370-8400 band is held, it is possible to see these figures in mid Nov to end of Dec.  More refined indications may emerge later.

October 2015 and Ahead

Time Tuned Nifty

As long as 7723 is held, 8225/8360/8570 is under threat. Possible to see this on Oct/01 or Oct/04 or Oct/26. Below 7760, a threat to 7620/7534/7340/7080 will emerge. Possible on Oct/26-28 or Dec/21.

In all likelihood, nifty seems to be headed higher and ideal long zone would be 7760-7770, with SL of 7723 or 7590-7600 with SL of 7530. Target could be 8225/8360/8570 and may be much higher later.

 Sensing that 11000+ may be coming in Jun 2016.

Nifty Nearing the End of Fall

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty on 02,September 2015

Let us first see EW.

A=9119-7940=1179
B=8040-8665=625
C=8665-7669=996 so far.  Ideal at A=C will be 7486.  So far the moves from 8665 are on course, both in terms of value and time.  As indicated in my previous post,  03 or 04 Sep 2015 can be a major low zone.  Bears should be cautious for a sharp rise.  From tomorrow onwards, bulls will be waiting to lauch the penultimate attack on bears.  Their aim most likely will be 10144or higher.  What I expect for tomorrow is that a minor rise may take place in the morning trade followed by a sharp dip to get below the last low by close or by early morning on 04 Sep.Point to watch is 7586/7450/7300.

Nifty as Perceived on 28 Jul 2015

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 28 Jul 2015

Nifty made a high of 8654 during the current rise and it seems that bears may have started to regain control.

However, it did start the downmove for the earlier defined low day of 27 July, which has now shifted to 30 July 2015. 8510-8520 zone again becomes crucial and will probably be the defining zone to indicate whether Nifty will make a new high in August 2015 (between 02-08 Aug) or it will go down to make a new lower low in October/November 2015.

What could be possible now may be as below:

30 July - A dip to 8175/8060 zone.
03-06 Aug - A rise to 8520, which may further go to a level around 9100, if 8520 is taken and sustained.
07 Oct - A low zone, which may correspond to 7000 or so.
A high zone that may be defined later and may test 7700-7800.
30 Nov - 06 Dec - A low zone, which may test 6700 or so.

Recent high and low remain crucial.

Nifty Now ?

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 18 June 2015

Nifty did go on to test 8300 region as perceived, but bears were unable to retain the pressure.

What could be possible now may be as below:

27 July - A dip to 8300-8090 zone.  Below 7940, possibility of 7500/7300 will emerge.
03-06 Aug - A rise to 8800 - 9200, which may further go to a level between 9700-10200.

8510 remains crucial for now for bulls.  Any dip below this should be used to close longs and go short.

Today's high /8562 would remain the datum for those who wish to ride the dip.

Nifty for 18 June 2015

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 18 June 2015

Nifty did go on to battle at 8125+5 as perceived in my update yesterday, but bulls were unable to retain the gains in the closing hours.

What could be possible tomorrow during the intraday trade may be as below:

Open to 0940 - A pop to 8110-8120.
1045 to 1100 - A dip to 8030, which may further dip to a level between 7960-7950.
1415 to 1430 - A high, which may go to 8330.

7939 remains the SL for now for bulls.  Any dip to 8030 (or to 7960-50) should be used to go long.

Today's high could be taken as datum by those who wish to ride the dip, not advisable though.

Review  19 Jun 2015 at 0930 hrs

It seems that 8330/8380 will be postponed for another day.  High may be already in place.  8230 could be the extreme and above this, bulls may regain confidence.

Today is 19 Jun 2015, a day of high.  Next low may come on 25 Jun 2015, which may or may not make a new low.  Keeping 8230 as SL and going short.  I must hold till 25th or till 8230 is taken out.

Review  19 Jun 2015 at 1015 hrs

 Shorts may be initiated now or may be held till 1100 hrs, where I will double up my positions in shorts.

Review  25 Jun 2015 at 0850 hrs

The high has not only extended beyond 19 Jun 2015, it has now reached a phase where it may continue higher.  The rise may end on 17 August 2015, with an intermediate high around 04 August.

8315 and 8420 will remain crucial for the respective side move.

Review  02 July 2015 at 0850 hrs

The high of 8480 becomes the key.  If 8435 is breached, a possibility for a dip to 8310-8300 by tomorrow, expectedly at 1030 or later, will emerge.  If 8300 is also taken, the possibility of a test of lows by 15 Jul 2015 will be highly probable.

8435/8300 and 8490 will remain crucial for the respective side move.

Perceptions on 15 Jun 2015

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 15 Jun 2015

Today is 15 Jun 2015 and as expected, Nifty is sitting at the lows of current fall.  7930-7935 could be the immediate support.

WW - The current fall could be the backtest of a WW that was formed in the previous fall to 7997.  In addition, another WW has been completed from 8065 on 07 Jan 2015.  Targets of both WWs are way North of previous high of 9119 and may go above 9800 with possibility to shave off 10K by Aug 2015.

The fall from 9119 may be either complete as a CT, or , it may just be E.a of  this CT with b and c to follow.  Immediate resistances are at 8300 and 8380.  Above these, the rise may pick up pace for re-testing the lifetime highs.

Time-wise 15 Jun 2015 may see an attempt to test the recent low of 7940, which may stall at 7930-7935 band.  If this happens, longs to be initiated for 8300/8380 by 19 Jun 2015 with a tight SL.

On 19 Jun 2015, if Nifty stays below 8380-8400, close all longs and go short.  However, if it crosses 8400 and sustains, cover longs and hold.

Crucial dates-

15 Jun 2015 for a low.

19 Jun 2015 for a high.  Look for 8300/8380/8570

13 July 2015 for a low.  If remains below 8380 on 19 Jun, look for 7670/7500 else look for 8210/8120.

Review 16 Jun 2015

Battle of bulls and bears should now shift to 8125+5 points.  In all likelihood, the bulls should win and push the battle zone higher towards 8380-8400 .  Will they be able to sustain their gains may be clear on 19 Jun 2015.  Bears should hold their horses and bulls should hold their positions.

My First Private Note

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for Jun 2015

Today on 26 May 2015, the fight was for 8365.9, which the bulls lost.

Tomorrow on 27 May 2015, the fight will shift to 8423.  Expected that the bulls will loose again.  A close above 8398 is highly likely.

1000-1015 could be the immediate high zone tomorrow.

The rising UTL lies at 8325 tomorrow and will also be the crucial level. 8345, 8450 and 8540 will remain crucial resistances for tomorrow.

27 May could be a possible high day for now.  28 May could be a day of low.

Currently, there are no high zones visible for Jun 2015.  The nearest significant high could be on 15 July and the peak may be around 08 August

There is one low zone on Jun 05/06 provided 8489 remains intact.  On that day, as low as 7990 could be targeted.

29 May 2015 1100 hrs

1145-1200 hrs is a possible high zone.  I do not expect Nifty to go beyond 8425.  Aim to go short between 8415-8425 for 8000.  SL will be around 8430, but will be kept mentally.

Jun/03-06 remains a possible low.

Today, the battle is for securing 8370 at close.  Let us see, who wins.

 03 June 2015 1230 hrs

The band of low has started from today.  Shorts should become cautious.  Critical zone is 8130-8140 and 7980-90.  If the former is reclaimed and sustained, initiate long.  Otherwise, remain on short side till 15 June 2015.

Today's close is critical at 8335.  Below this the bears will still have the upper hand. 

Extreme targets could be 9000 on the up and 7300 on the down side.

Adieus

Time Tuned Nifty

I had written in my initial post that I have severe constraint on the time that I can devote to this blog.  In past, I wrote few posts, which may have benefited some and may have confused many.  During the time since I wrote my first post on the blog, the constraints of time continued to be felt and now at this juncture, I am unable to find any more time to write the blog.

Due to these constraints, I have decided to discontinue the blog and convert it to a place of personal notes, which I can access from anywhere.  Other readers will be unable to see my posts after a week.

Inconvenience, if any, to any reader, is deeply regretted.

All the best to all of you and adieus.

What now?

Time Tuned Nifty

I had been sensing a high on 18 May 15.  Nifty did make a high, but did not go to the extent I thought it would go.  What may follow now is as below:

20 May : A low is scheduled and it may stretch to the forenoon hours of 21st.

Subsequent moves later, as much lower levels are likely to be targeted and higher levels may have to hold for some time now.  Key zones are 8380-8400 and 8200-8210.  Above the higher band, it may go on to make higher levels to reset the high.  Below lower band, it may even target 7300 or lower.  How and when?  Will emerge later.

For now, 1045-1100 is a high zone and may not cross 8380 for the day.