Nifty 23 February 2016: A Dip Before Further Rise

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 23 February 2016

Further to my post 11 Feb 2016 : Low may be Around the Corner.

With the low dipping to 6869 on 12 Feb 16, the high zone has got shifted.  Now the high may come on 27-28 March 2016 instead of 04-07 Mar 2016 provided the low remains intact till then.

Meanwhile, the intermediate high zone is likely to come on 25 Feb 2016 and may get stalled near 7280.  Subsequent fall should see a low on 02-04 March 2016 or a little later.

Recommended Plan

Close all longs on 25 Feb 2016, preferably between recent high and 7280 and initiate shorts or take cover positions through 6900 PE of Mar expiry.

On 03 March, most likely around 6920-6900, take CEs through 7000-7200 strikes for a high on 28 March 2016.

All the best.

11 Feb 2016 : Low may be Around the Corner

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 11 February 2016

It has been a little long since I wrote my views on Nifty here.  My apologies for lack of updates through this roller coaster ride in Nifty.  I am still not really keen to update due to my inability to remain in synch with the markets, but there has been requests that push me into writing what I perceive as the possible course of Nifty in next couple of months.

First of all, absolute low could be limited to 6700, which I have been talking about for quite some time.  11-12 Feb 2016 (today and tomorrow) mark an intermediate low and 04/07 March 2016 could be a high.  The final low may be established in Apr/May 2016.  Readers may keep an eye for a breach of UTL of the falling channel from 9119, which would define the intent for a larger rise.  Till that happens, this UTL will continue to resist the bulls and subsequent falls will keep pushing the Nifty lower.

11-12 Feb 2016   Low zone, expect 7120. 6700-6800 indicated if 7110 is breached.
04-07 Mar 2016 or may be a little later  - 7650/7820/7960, Keep a lookout for breach of UTL.


All the best.

Happy New Year

Welcome 2016

Wishing all the members a very happy and prosperous 2016.  May God bless you all and your near and dear ones.  May all your endeavors reach the desired success.

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Is the Low Established in Nifty on 13 November 2015.

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 13 November and Later

I had written about my perceptions on Nifty at Nifty on 05 Nov 2015 and Later : Possible Impact of / on Bihar Election where I had mentioned that 13 November would be a day of low.  So far, it has turned out in that manner, but question remains whether the fall is over and done with.  As far as I am concerned, I may have flawed due to some holidays this month, which may have been missed.  Currently, the low zone of Friday the 13th, looks good to me, but there is possibility of another low on 19 November.

This is what I perceive for the time being.  Nifty needs to hold 7720-7710 band.  If it does so, it should rise to first test 7850/7950/8130 on 17-18 November and then make the low on 19 November, which may not go lower than the recent low it makes.  I expect a dip to 7739 at the most.  After 19th, Nifty may again rise to make a high on 24/26 th.  I perceive that 8130 should be tested during this expiry and it would be a crucial level to identify further course Nifty takes.

As long as the UTL of 9119-8655 is held, broader trend remains down.  This TL will be hovering around 8250 on 24/26 November.

The trade setup for now is simple.  SL 7710 or 7530 as per risk appetite.  Go long as close to 7720 as possible (or above 7780) for targets of 7850/7950/8130/8250.  If and when it reaches above 8130,  prepare and go for shorts as close to 8250 or below 8130 for a new recent low with SL of 8260 or 8340 depending on the risk appetite.

Summary

18 Nov 2015 - A high around 1200-1215 when 7850 is highly probable.

19 Nov 2015 - A low zone.  Time yet to be defined.  A retest of the low would be possible on this day.

24/26 Nov 2015 - A high at closing hours.  7850/7950 are very likely. May test 8130/8250.   The corrective to the entire fall from 8337 should finish at this time.

02-04 Dec 2015 - Not accurately defined, but possibly on these days the next leg of the fall may finish.  If it indeed does, we may see levels lower than 7530 and may be lower.

Readers may again keep in mind that major moves may not come in this expiry.  The extremes are indicated in Mid December.

All the best.

Happy Diwali 2015

Wishing all the members a very happy and prosperous Diwali.  May Godess Lakshmi shower her blessing to all of you.  God bless.

 

 

Nifty on 05 Nov 2015 and Later : Possible Impact of / on Bihar Election

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 

The current week as well as next week are full of events that may move the markets substantially. There are plenty of news from USA coming and then we have Bihar exit polls and the result on Sunday.  On various occasions I have maintained that TA at times also indicates the outcome of a pending news. Let us see what is expected in next 4-6 days.

Tomorrow between 0945-1000 hrs a high should be established.  I am expecting a visit to 8130-8140. Above this band, bears are likely to get massacred and hence SLs should be tight for shorts and shorts are indeed advised. 

Once this high is done (presumably at 8137) Nifty is likely to head towards 8040 and reach there towards closing 30 minutes tomorrow (05 November 2015).  With shorts initiated at or near 8137, aim to get into CEs, if 8040-50 is seen around 1500-1530 hrs and hold. 

I am expecting a lot of volatility for next 4-7 trading days, which works out to 10-13 Nov 2015.  After the possible low at 1500-1530 hrs tomorrow, Nifty remains above 8040, it may head higher to peak on 10/12/13 th Nov.  Possible targets in that case would be 8270-80 above which we should start looking for a new high for Nifty.

Summary

05 Nov 2015 - A high around 1000-1015 and a low between 1500-1530 (May come at the opening of next day)

06 Nov 2015 - A high at 1145-1200 hrs.  Low yet to be defined.

09 Nov 2015 - A high at closing hours.  May test 8160/8270.   The corrective to the fall from 8337 should finish at this time.

13 Nov 2015 - Not accurately defined yet, but possibly on this day the C to the fall may finish.  If it indeed does, we may see 7850-7800 and may be lower.

Readers may keep in mind that major moves may not come in this expiry.  The extremes are indicated in Mid December.  Whichever side it moves, the current extremes are likely to get stretched by then.  We may see Nifty above 9200 or below 7500 in this period.  Keep the intended positions covered with cheaper options.  Also be miserly with initiating the position as well as with your SLs.  e.g  A short initiated near 8130-40 band, must have a SL at 8145/8150 coz above these levels, Nifty may head for 8270.  If it does not, and gets below 8130 again, re-initiate shorts with SL a tick higher than the high made.

All the best.

Nov 2015 and Ahead

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for Nov 2015

I had written my appreciation for Oct in my last post at October 2015 and Ahead . Nifty is on the verge of making 8360 and that may happen Either on 26-27 Oct or on 30 Oct-02 Nov.

Once this high is established,  look for shorts between 8360-8370 with SL of 8400+ for a target of 7950/7500/7250.  As long as 8370-8400 band is held, it is possible to see these figures in mid Nov to end of Dec.  More refined indications may emerge later.

October 2015 and Ahead

Time Tuned Nifty

As long as 7723 is held, 8225/8360/8570 is under threat. Possible to see this on Oct/01 or Oct/04 or Oct/26. Below 7760, a threat to 7620/7534/7340/7080 will emerge. Possible on Oct/26-28 or Dec/21.

In all likelihood, nifty seems to be headed higher and ideal long zone would be 7760-7770, with SL of 7723 or 7590-7600 with SL of 7530. Target could be 8225/8360/8570 and may be much higher later.

 Sensing that 11000+ may be coming in Jun 2016.

Nifty Nearing the End of Fall

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty on 02,September 2015

Let us first see EW.

A=9119-7940=1179
B=8040-8665=625
C=8665-7669=996 so far.  Ideal at A=C will be 7486.  So far the moves from 8665 are on course, both in terms of value and time.  As indicated in my previous post,  03 or 04 Sep 2015 can be a major low zone.  Bears should be cautious for a sharp rise.  From tomorrow onwards, bulls will be waiting to lauch the penultimate attack on bears.  Their aim most likely will be 10144or higher.  What I expect for tomorrow is that a minor rise may take place in the morning trade followed by a sharp dip to get below the last low by close or by early morning on 04 Sep.Point to watch is 7586/7450/7300.

Nifty as Perceived on 28 Jul 2015

Time Tuned Nifty

Time Tuned Nifty for 28 Jul 2015

Nifty made a high of 8654 during the current rise and it seems that bears may have started to regain control.

However, it did start the downmove for the earlier defined low day of 27 July, which has now shifted to 30 July 2015. 8510-8520 zone again becomes crucial and will probably be the defining zone to indicate whether Nifty will make a new high in August 2015 (between 02-08 Aug) or it will go down to make a new lower low in October/November 2015.

What could be possible now may be as below:

30 July - A dip to 8175/8060 zone.
03-06 Aug - A rise to 8520, which may further go to a level around 9100, if 8520 is taken and sustained.
07 Oct - A low zone, which may correspond to 7000 or so.
A high zone that may be defined later and may test 7700-7800.
30 Nov - 06 Dec - A low zone, which may test 6700 or so.

Recent high and low remain crucial.